Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.270563 1.339175 1.410379 1.489962 1.576635 1.668397 1.773194
2025-12-14 1.143210 1.237138 1.338689 1.457260 1.592706 1.743570 1.925686
2025-12-21 1.071669 1.180648 1.301827 1.447742 1.620281 1.819870 2.071321
2025-12-28 1.030222 1.151828 1.290246 1.461327 1.669764 1.919099 2.245687
2026-01-04 0.983154 1.111965 1.261315 1.449811 1.685142 1.974620 2.366588
2026-01-11 0.956327 1.093507 1.255382 1.463862 1.730455 2.067667 2.540026
2026-01-18 0.927112 1.070004 1.241176 1.465532 1.758535 2.138525 2.687569
2026-01-25 0.912691 1.063374 1.246682 1.491349 1.818030 2.253139 2.903445
2026-02-01 0.875865 1.027016 1.212828 1.463950 1.804441 2.266544 2.974169
2026-02-08 0.836864 0.986325 1.171610 1.424561 1.771866 2.250587 2.998724
2026-02-15 0.812246 0.962901 1.151468 1.411901 1.774721 2.283998 3.099360
2026-02-22 0.795186 0.948418 1.142147 1.413004 1.796241 2.344816 3.246665
2026-03-01 0.770040 0.923378 1.118979 1.395466 1.792187 2.370327 3.344471
2026-03-08 0.741531 0.893116 1.087904 1.365748 1.769098 2.365835 3.392697
2026-03-15 0.722931 0.875209 1.072577 1.357129 1.775999 2.407045 3.521202
2026-03-22 0.713274 0.868730 1.072261 1.369431 1.814192 2.499097 3.747181
2026-03-29 0.696108 0.851598 1.056700 1.359003 1.817131 2.534510 3.874226
2026-04-05 0.688015 0.846375 1.057228 1.371726 1.855965 2.630717 4.124829
2026-04-12 0.676591 0.836220 1.050450 1.373237 1.877071 2.698410 4.328175
2026-04-19 0.672954 0.836547 1.058266 1.396596 1.933877 2.830984 4.678671
2026-04-26 0.654103 0.815321 1.034830 1.371805 1.911351 2.822705 4.734360
2026-05-03 0.632640 0.789990 1.004894 1.336124 1.869404 2.777231 4.705364
2026-05-10 0.619618 0.776146 0.991070 1.324645 1.866904 2.802765 4.834962